Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Cycle Over?

 Bitcoin has been experiencing a bull market cycle for a long time now, but the most recent trend shows a downturn.  This has led some to believe that this isn’t just a temporary setback but the end of the bull market cycle.

As is always the case with market speculation, some investors are quick to abandon Bitcoin as these changes become noticeable, while most still believe in the simple buy-and-hold strategy.  In this article, we’ll go over the arguments for both outlooks.

The Down Turn

Bitcoin had its best price on January 20^th, 2025, the day of President Trump’s inauguration.  At that moment, it was worth $109,000.  It was also a sign of an overall change in the approach to crypto and blockchain-based assets.  It’s now easier than ever to buy crypto with a credit card, and small-time investors are a big part of the market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped by 22 percent compared to that day.  Experts are split about the broader meaning of this trend.  Most believe that the bull market will end in a few months, but it seems that it’s happening ahead of schedule.

 Adding to the Pressure

To follow the Bitcoin price prediction, it’s important to understand the term support levels.  It refers to the price range where buying interest is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further.  At this point, it’s between $75,000 and $78,000.

There are a few additional factors that are adding pressure to the support levels and lowering the value of Bitcoin at the moment.  The first of these is the slowing whale accumulation – large BTC holders are buying less of it.  It shows that there’s less market confidence than before.  The second important factor to consider is that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are selling more Bitcoin than they are buying.

Four Year Cycles

Many experts and industry insiders point out that the four-year cycle that Bitcoin has followed is still the most important tool for understanding the market.  The price tends to follow the pattern of peaks and corrections.  Every cycle includes the accumulation phase, the bull market phase, the peak and correction phase, and the bear market phase.

Bitcoin has a feature called halving, in which the number of available coins is halved on a regular basis within the four-year cycle.  That’s done to avoid inflation and limit the number of available coins.

Changes Brought on by ETFs

However, there has recently been a change in how Bitcoin is traded, and it may have led to a change within the four-year cycle.  The introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has allowed investors to profit from Bitcoin by using the stock market instead of actually purchasing any Bitcoin on their own.

The funds have surpassed $125 billion in cumulative holdings.  The size and importance of these funds have led some analysts to believe that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer of relevance and that the market will be changing much faster from now on.

Broader Market Changes

There are also changes in traditional finance and markets that are affecting the value of Bitcoin and leading it to a downward cycle.  The most important of these forces is inflation, which has affected the economy as a whole and dents investment in any asset, including crypto.

The overall global instability and political tension around the globe will affect the economy as a whole, and it will spill into Bitcoin, even though many see it as a hedge against those changes.

Predictions and Bets

Polymarket bettors are well known for their bets and predictions about the crypto market.  They have been active lately and have made predictions about the changing value of Bitcoin and the chance of falling further as the bull market cycle closes.

It gives a 51 percent chance that Bitcoin will end the week in the $81k to $87k range.  They also give a 31 percent chance that the price will fall further and land at about $75k by the end of the month.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju is an industry insider and someone with a large following, earned by his careful analysis and often accurate predictions.  He’s made predictions on the future state of Bitcoin and the end of the bull market phase, and he’s been on the pessimistic side of things.

“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action,” he stated.  It’s an interesting change of heart, as Ki Young Ju wrote about the bull market holding steady, in his January predictions. 

The Worst Case Scenario

As is often the case with events such as these, there are some analysts and, therefore, some investors who are anticipating the worst-case scenario.  It’s unlikely that it will unfold, and chances are that there’s actually no event to speak of and that the market will recover on its own, as it does within the cycle.

The worst-case scenario is that the dip shows a change in public attitude towards crypto and that the golden age of Bitcoin that we had for a while is coming to an end.  Many investors feel that the Trump administration will play a role in this new outlook towards crypto, and if that is the case, the upward swing will last a very short time.

What do you do if the cycle is over?

For investors already holding some of their assets in Bitcoin, there are two ways to approach the dip.  The first is to drop their investment before the value goes down further, and that’s a choice for those using Bitcoin for short-term and mid-term planning.  The second, and the one made for those looking for the long view, is to hold the assets and wait for the long-term profits.

Those looking to get into the Bitcoin market or to expand their Bitcoin assets should buy the dip as is customary in every industry.

How Are Altcoins Affected?

 The altcoin market is wide and diverse, and it’s difficult to guess how each of the altcoins will be affected by the changes in Bitcoin prices.  However, in a broad sense, if Bitcoin goes down, the first reaction for most altcoins is to go down as well.  It shows that there’s less trust in the crypto market, and the investors will act accordingly.

The general rule is also that the smaller the altcoin is, the more it will be affected by the changes in the market, especially if it relies on speculation and hype.

To Sum Up

Bitcoin has been experiencing a bull market for a long time now, and it seems that it’s coming to an end if it’s to be judged by the latest indicators.  There’s usually a four-year-long cycle to these changes, and the latest dip came earlier than anyone expected.

This has led some analysts to believe that the price of Bitcoin won’t follow the cycles it followed before.  The overall financial crisis has also had its effect, and whale investors aren’t buying Bitcoin at the moment.  Those in the business of predicting such outcomes have already predicted that the price of Bitcoin will fall to about $80K.