Did you know that Bitcoin historically experiences a downward trend in September and an upward trend in October? This has led to these months being dubbed “Redtember” and “Greentober” respectively. Of course, Bitcoin is known to fluctuate at all times of the year. However, the significant volatility that BTC normally experiences between these two autumnal months has long fascinated investors and analysts alike. This article will examine the significance of these two months over the last decade and determine whether or not 2024 will continue the trend.
Redtember: an overview
Redtember – also known as “rektember” – has been a mainstay of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations since 2011. In every September since Bitcoin has experienced somewhat of a bearish trend and has dipped in 10 of the 13 years. In only three of the last 13 years has Bitcoin increased during the month of September.
The fact that September dips far outweigh the increases has led many crypto investors to regard the month with a sense of unease. So far, Bitcoin has experienced a dip in September 2024, but it’s difficult to determine whether or not this decrease will be as significant as previous Redtembers.
Throughout this year, Bitcoin has been in a better position than ever before. It reached its all-time high in 2024, exceeding $73,000. This was partially thanks to increased investor interest in addition to the furthering of institutional adoption.
It’s now possible to use crypto to pay for a myriad of goods and services, from e-commerce products and video games to groceries and car insurance. Many people like to shop online using crypto as it allows them to bypass transaction fees and complete transactions quickly.
In many other sectors, crypto is starting to replace traditional payment methods completely. For example, when it comes to online casinos, gamblers are moving towards crypto-accepting sites due to the benefits offered. Geoff Kukard from SportsCasting says that online casinos provide fast transactions, smooth sign-up procedures, and anonymous gambling with no KYC (Know Your Customer) checks. Given these reasons, it’s easy to understand why crypto-accepting casinos are gaining popularity.
The current overall health of the crypto market poses the question: is Redtember 2024 possible?
Historical reasons for Redtember
To understand why Redtember occurs, let’s examine previous reasons for the early Autumn slump:
- Inflation – Throughout 2022, fears regarding inflation doubled throughout the year. This came as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, supply chain issues, and the aftereffects of the pandemic. These inflation fears diminished investor optimism in crypto, which resulted in a September price drop from $20,049 to $19,700.
- Halving – 2020’s Redtember could be blamed on the price halving that occurred earlier that year. Crypto analysts have argued that the May halving created the need for post-halving corrections, which resulted in Bitcoin falling from $11,650 to $10,778 in September. However, halving does not necessarily mean that Redtember is inevitable. For example, following the halving of July 2016, BTC actually underwent a rare September increase from $572 to $603.
- Regulatory changes – Bitcoin regulations have frequently been altered in late summer, resulting in reduced optimism. For example, in 2017, China banned Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). This has often been blamed for BTC’s drop in September that year from $4,758 to $4,312.
For the most part, the above points prove that several significant Redtembers can be blamed on specific developments in either the crypto sphere or the world at large.
Will there be a Redtember in 2024?
There has been a Redtember every year since 2017, with September 2023 witnessing a drop from $27,200 to $25,670.
Will 2024 be the year that breaks the curse? Let’s find out:
- Halving – As aforementioned, halving can result in Redtember. Bitcoin was halved in April this year. While this was several months ago, it is still possible that post-halving corrections may occur this September.
- Trump Vs. Harris debate – Trump and Harris engaged in a televised debate on September 10 which was watched by over 65 million people. Given Trump’s recent advocacy of crypto, it was hoped that Bitcoin and crypto at large would be discussed. However, neither party mentioned it; plus, the crypto-neutral Harris has been widely regarded as the winner of the debate. This resulted in Bitcoin dropping from a high of $57,983 to a low of $56,151 on September 11.
- Resistance level – On the September run-up, BTC struggled to break a resistance level of $60,000. Normally, investors tend to sell their assets when BTC fails to overcome a resistance level. If BTC had broken through $60,000 it would have likely resulted in increased investment. Given BTC’s failure to exceed this landmark, many investors will likely start exiting the BTC game. This could result in another Redtember.
Additionally, it’s important to consider that, historically, September is often the month that investors make dramatic changes to their portfolios. Upon returning from summer vacation, investors are prone to reviewing their chosen investments and removing parts that aren’t working. This trend has occurred for nearly a century, with the S&P 500 experiencing an average decline of 1% every year since 1928.
While the idea of the “September Effect” long predates the invention of crypto, it likely has an impact on BTC investors, too.
Will there be a Greentober?
Since 2011, Bitcoin has experienced nine Greentobers. There hasn’t been a slump in October since 2018, with 2023 seeing BTC making an impressive leap from $25,670 to $30,300. Given the six-year track record, the chances of a Greentober occurring in 2024 are high.
Despite the fact global events can sometimes trigger a drop in September, they have regularly had the opposite effect come October. For example, October 2017 witnessed one of the most lucrative Greentobers in history, with prices jumping from $4,312 to $6,479.
This jump wasn’t impacted by the growing tensions at the time between North Korea and the US – in fact, it was viewed as being a product of it. This was the first time that crypto was considered a safe haven should global conflict or economic instability occur. At this time, investors were looking for assets that were disconnected from global banks and markets – hence the significant rise in BTC.
So, the ongoing world conflicts should not be taken as an indication that a downward trend will occur this October. Similarly, pandemic-fueled fears regarding the health of the economy in September 2020 resulted in BTC making a major jump the month following.
Final words
Cryptocurrency is a volatile investment type that experiences several peaks and troughs throughout the year. However, it is difficult to deny that September and October witness the most significant changes to the value of BTC, normally going from slump to growth. The post-summer investment slump and global events have triggered significant drops in Bitcoin during September, with things generally picking back up again come October. This sums up the cyclical nature of cryptocurrency.
